The Outrageous Predictions 2021

are they really?

8 minutes
SAT 26-12-2020
Could you have foreseen a year ago that a virus would shut down the global economy and that the oil price would even turn negative for a while? Some predictions are so insane that you actually can't believe them. 

As is tradition, the stock market economists of Saxo Bank have put ten Outrageous Predictions for 2021 on paper: "Crazy predictions" that may make you smile or, on the contrary, scare you. But don't worry. These are ten high-profile but also highly uncertain visions of the future, which the bank and its investment strategist Steen Jakobsen publish every year in December. Predictions with a wink, which are therefore not part of the official market outlook of Saxo Bank or BinckBank. 

Yet this is not only a beautiful tradition, but is also read more and more seriously in the financial world. Because while many of the predictions seem rather unlikely, there is always the chance that one or more of them will occur unexpectedly. “The already existing super trends in the social and technological field have been enormously driven by the corona crisis. As a result, revolutionary things are possible in the coming years, both technologically, medically and in the field of sustainability” says Steen Jakobsen. 

So read here the 'Saxo Bank 2021 Outrageous Predictions' of what may be possible next year. These are the ten "crazy predictions" for 2021.
1. Amazon takes over Cyprus 
The increasing pressure from governments on the power of large tech groups and their low tax payments is forcing Amazon to take a radical step. The tech giant decides to move its headquarters to Cyprus. Despite a very low corporation tax rate, Amazon's mega profits have put the country straight out of financial trouble and can pay off a large part of its national debt. 

2. Germany saves France 
France is still at risk of becoming the biggest victim of the corona crisis and in 2021 to succumb financially under a rising national debt and imploding financial sector. In the end, Paris has no other choice than to begging for wealthy neighbor Germany to save the country from collapse. 

3. Blockchain eliminates "fake news" 
Fake news will end. Due to the growing irritation about the harmful effects and influence of incorrect and false information on the internet and social media, the protagonists are forced to create a barrier. From now on, information will only be shared via blockchain technology after a check on reliability and news reports can now be traced back to the source. 

4. Flying start Chinese digital currency 
Although 80 percent of all payments in China already go through services such as AliPay and WeChat, the country is taking it a step further with the introduction of a digital version of the yuan. By simultaneously giving foreign investors access to the Chinese capital market in this way, the attack on the dollar as a reserve currency is also opened. 

5. New algorithm creates energy revolution 
Although new and sustainable energy solutions stimulate growth, the global economy needs disruption in this area too. This will come in 2021 with a breakthrough in the field of nuclear fusion. Using a newly developed algorithm, this increases the energy gain of this technique by a factor of 20, making it a commercial alternative. 

6. Depletion of cities due to worldwide basic income 
To tackle the further increased inequality caused by the coronavirus and the increased importance of a good balance between work and private life, a global basic income comes into the picture. At the same time, working from home due to corona is taking off, forcing many to leave the expensive cities and settle in the areas where they grew up when they were young. 

7. Ordinary man receives a disruption dividend 
It also responds to the increased feeling of injustice, social unrest and criticism of today's society by allowing the common man to profit from the great technological progress. This is done through a large citizen technology fund, which annually redistributes part of the global equity holdings via a disruption dividend to groups that have fallen further behind due to technological progress. 

8. Bankruptcy wave due to corona vaccine 
After the initial jubilation about the corona vaccines, they turn out to be a killer for part of the economy in 2021. As a result of the vigorous recovery, some parts will become totally overheated, interest, wages and inflation will rise extremely in the course of 2021, causing a large number of companies and sectors with substantial debt to fail.

9. Silver is the new gold 
A combination of persistently low interest rates and rising inflation will explode demand for silver in 2021. Not only because the demand for silver will exceed the supply, but also because the importance of silver as an application in more and more industrial applications will push the price of the metal even higher.

10. Internet bubble moves to the countryside 
While the internet and tech bubble in recent years mainly caused growth in the cities and densely populated areas through cabling and masts, more remote areas and emerging markets will also fully benefit from the tech bubble. Due to satellites and drones, digital trading and digital payment are becoming the norm everywhere. The whole world is going to be tech. 

Would you like to read a lot more about these special predictions from Saxo Bank and what the thoughts are behind? Click here for a much more detailed explanation of the Saxo website. Of course, the extreme predictions of Saxo Bank, which are largely intended to be playful, do not form BinckBank's view of the financial markets. But to get you thinking, we would like to share it with you. If you nevertheless want to align your investment strategy with one of these "predictions", be aware that you should take the statements with a good grain of salt. But at the same time, you never know ...

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